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From the dawn of history, world powers have come and gone. From the superpowers of the ancient world, through the European Colonial empires to the USSR in the twentieth Century, the collapse of a superpower brought a far-reaching geo-political change and the formation of a new world order. The appearance of the modern powers and their mutual recognition led to the signing of the Paris accord in 1814. It, along with the decisions made in the Vienna congress the following year, made official the mood across Europe in the post-Napoleon era. The four powers of that time, Great Britain, Austria, Prussia and Russia, mutually agreed to lay down their weapons in favor of reconstructing France and maintaining regional stability. This resulted in the formation of a unique multi-polar system, which remained war-free for four decades, when Britain aligned itself with France and the Ottoman Empire against Russia in the Crimean War of 1854. Although the powers' ability to maintain their dominance over neighbors was limited, particularly when compared to the absolute supremacy of the two superpowers during the first Cold war, the 19th century multi-polar system managed to endure several wars between the major powers. From the Crimean War in 1854, through Austria-Prussia in 1866 to France-Prussia five years later, the balance was maintained largely due to the balancing policy of Great Britain. Maintaining this balance in the multi-polar system resulted in shifting alliances between the powers that eventually prompted the demise of the system. When Great Britain and the emerging United States aligned themselves with France and Russia in WWI, it resulted in the demise of Austro-Hungary, Germany and the Ottoman Empire. Great Britain and France's inability to maintain stability in post-WWI Europe, along with the United States’ then-current-policy of separatism and the emergence of the Bolshevik Empire, radicalized central Europe. It resulted in surfacing Fascism and the subsequent emergence and embracing of the Nazi movement. Six years later, Europe, which was the axis of global power for centuries, was left in ruins. Germany and it allies were defeated. The end of the war gave birth to two new superpowers: The United States and the Soviet Union, as well as new global war, known as the first “Cold War.” The First Cold War The bipolar system formed after WWII introduced the United States as the head of the Western Block and the USSR as the head of the opposing Eastern (commonly referred to as the “Communist Block”). Some would argue that Great Britain's place as the balancing element of the geo-political system was succeeded by Nuclear weapons. The fear of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) significantly contributed to the reluctance of both superpowers to directly engage one another in an armed conflict, which coined the phrase "Cold" war. It had also resulted in the unprecedented solidarity of the two blocks, making the bipolar system more stable then its 19th century multi-polar counterpart. On November 9th 1989, 28 years after its first bricks were laid, the Berlin wall fell. Television Cameras helped carry the winds of history to hundreds of millions of viewers across the globe. For the Soviet leadership, it symbolized the fall of the last line of defense; for those living under oppression for more than four decades, the pictures from Berlin symbolized the nearing freedom; for the Western leaders, the sound of the hammers beating on the wall sounded like the victory march. All who watched the images knew that moment would have both a global significance and impact. It marked the crowning of the United States as a Sole Superpower and the creation of a new, uni-polar system. Since then political scientists and think-tanks around the globe speculated what would come next. Some suggested a new superpower, either the EU or China, would emerge and create a new bipolar system. Others suggested the United Stated dominance would be undermined by lose of allies, molding a new multi-polar system. In addition, there were even those who feared that the United States would collapse on its own, thus creating an a-polar system, the likes of which was last seen in the dark ages. One thing was unanimously understood - In the modern era, a uni-polar system can never be stable. There for, sooner or later, it must change. The Interim Period The Collapse of the Soviet Union has, in turn, caused a rift in the Western block as well. A significant number of Western Allies, most notably Japan and members from the emerging EU, have grown apart from the United States as they were seeking to capitalize on their regional dominance. It was the golden age of Regional agreements. From NAFTA in North America, the Andean Community in South America, the European Union, the African Union, the Collective Security Treaty and GUAM in Eastern Europe, the Shanghai Five in Central Asia down to the Preferential Trade Agreements in South Asia. Trade agreements and strategic alliances were formed all over the world as most countries found it easier and more beneficial to deal with its neighbors than with one of the superpowers. The four major powers charted unfamiliar territories in the first years after the cold war. The United States attempted to create an affective and competent international community; Russia tried to get use to the concepts of Democracy; China emerged out of east Asia and targeted new markets and the members of the European Union laid the ground for joint policies. On September 11th 2001, the United States was targeted by radical Islamists in the deadliest terror attacks n history. In response, it declared a global war on Terror, and once again found itself fighting half-way across the world, which for many countries, bolstered anti-American emotions even further. Within a few short years it had turned out that the September 11th attacks encouraged the formation of a new geo-political system. The Second Cold War The new geo-political system, which we call "The Second Cold War", uniquely combines elements from both the multi-polar system of the 19th Century as well as the bipolar system which existed in the second half of the 20th Century. On one hand, the current system is explicitly bipolar, with two opposing blocks; The Democratic Block, led by the United States and the European Union, and the Authoritarian Block, led by Russia and the People's Republic of China. The geo-political polarity today is fueled by the nature of the regimes. Thus, the Democratic block is compiled of all countries with a stable democratic regime and their allies, while the Authoritarian Block members are aligned with opposing regimes, from Authoritarian to Totalitarian. On the other hand, the internal dynamics driving each block can be characterized as a multi-headed system. While the members of each block are as tightly aligned as block members were during the first Cold war, the supremacy over each block is not as clear. The United States dominance over its Democratic allies has been weakening in recent years, while the policies sponsored by EU members have become more prominent. In the Authoritarian Block, Moscow's dominance has disappeared along with the “Hammer and Sickle.” Instead, after decades of looking down on China, Russia now recognizes its neighbor as being an equal-right, strategic ally. Democratic Block The Global War on Terror, the tent pole of President Bush's foreign policy, has taken its toll on American relations with allies and rivals alike. While attacking the Taliban regime in Afghanistan was supported throughout the world, invading Iraq was seen as overkill, literally. Since then, the major powers of the European Union grew closer to the United States positions just as the new geo-political system began to take shape. France and Germany, scorned by the United States in 2002 for representing "Old Europe", are now under unprecedented pro-American leadership with Sarkozy and Merkel, respectively. With Great Britain's Gordon Brown still a loyal ally, Europe has, in fact, returned to its "old" self, as it is now closer to Washington than it has been for two decades. It is also worth noting that Italy and Spain went the other way around by unseating pro-Americans in favor of leftists Prodi and Zapatero respectively. Since they were elected however, the two have been struggling to maintain their respective administrations. The United States sought support from Democratic allies outside the EU as well. Earlier in the decade, Japan seemed closer than ever under Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who abandoned Tokyo's long-lasting Pacifism policy in favor of a more Activist one. The United States also recognized the importance of lobbying in the world's largest Democracy, India. In March 2006 President Bush traveled to New Delhi to improve relations, in a visit some columnists called "The most significant Asian visit by an American President since Nixon traveled to China.” Between long-term partners like Australia and Canada, regionally dominant Mexico, South Korea, Turkey, Ethiopia and Israel, and non-democratic strategic allies like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the United States has successfully maintained significant allies all across the world. As the inter-bloc struggles for dominance proliferates, it is becoming clear that the global war on terror, arguably the driving force behind the new geo-political polarization, is no longer relevant. Most would agree that the on-going mission in Iraq, however regionally crucial, no longer holds the global significance which was attributed to it going initially. Even those who fail to recognize Iran as the major destabilizing force of the region understand now that by not confronting it, terror still blinds American decision-makers from recognizing the new threat. Authoritarian Block Following years of mounting pressure from western countries on human rights and trade issues, authoritarian countries have started to coordinate strategies. The actions they took as they each came under pressure from the United States and the European Union, significantly improved their independent status as well as interstate relations. Vladimir Putin turned a bankrupted, crumbling Russia to a fast-growing modern economy in just a few years, paying off its mammoth national debt in record time. By outmaneuvering the Democratic powers as well as China, the dominant Russian President secured access to energy-rich countries. By doing so, he has turned his country, already one of the largest oil producers, into the world leader in Natural Gas. China, under President Hu Jintao, has kept its annual growth rate at double digits. In order to meet the resulting raising demand, it has stepped up efforts to secure access to raw materials all over the world, from Latin America to the Persian Gulf. China has been eyeing Africa in particular, boosting its annual trade with countries of the continent from 10 million dollars in the 1980s to 10 Billion in 2000, and 55 Billion in 2006. If estimates hold, China will overtake France as Africa's second largest trader before this decade ends. In Latin America, a new generation of socialist leaders has emerged, led by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez. Priding himself on following the footsteps of Fidel Castro, Chavez actively sought to influence elections across the continent as he set out to form an "Anti-American Latin axis". Evo Morales of Bolivia, Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and Rafael Korea of Ecuador, have all been elected after being supported by Chavez, while Hugo-favorites Lopez Obrador of Mexico and Ollanta Humala of Peru lost narrowly. The members of the Latin Axis tighten their interstate relations and are cooperating under the Bolivarian Alternative for the People of Our America (ALBA) organization. They have also reached out to other Authoritarian, Anti-American states. Most notably, Hugh Chavez signed an arms deal with Russia and negotiated a significant energy contract with China, while befriending radicals like Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran. The Iranian regime, soon to gain observer status in ALBA, is still in defiance over its nuclear program. It has tightened relations with Syria's Bashar al-Assad, who is also under international pressure to comply with Security Council resolutions. Last month it has been reported that Syria, and possibly Iran also, have been cooperating in a secret Nuclear Project with another member of the "Axis of Evil", North Korea. From the Authoritarian Block perspective, the near future seems bright – Its members own a clear majority of the worlds energy resources; Russia is just starting to reap the fruits of Putin's reforms; China's Communist Party is still able to maintain an effective stable administration over the soon to be 3rd largest economy on the globe; The anti-American chants across Latin America have yet to subside and the Iranian Radicalism continues to spread. Even more promising is the tightening relations between Russia and China, as the Shanghai Cooperation Group is emerging as a force to be reckoned with. Add to that the unifying influence that US and EU preaching has over Authoritarian countries, and you get an extremely tight block.On the down side, the Democratic Block still enjoys technological superiority in both army and civilian industries. Inferiority in soon-to-be crucial areas like Nuclear Energy and Water Desalination might prove challenging to the members of the Authoritarian block. Conflicts in the new world With the Democratic countries regarding the dissemination of Democratic values as a forum to promote stability, and with Authoritarian rulers fearing these values to undermine their own regime, the clear majority of international conflicts in recent years saw members from opposing blocks squaring-off. In East Asia, it seems North Korea may be getting ready to abandon its nuclear program after years of mounting Western pressure. However, its shockingly poor human rights record, along with tight relations with the likes of Iran and Syria, are likely to prolong Pyongyang's membership in the Axis of Evil. Westwards, in Central Asia, Russia managed to hold off foreign efforts to secure a share of the region's vast natural gas and oil stockpiles. By tightening relations with the five former soviet republics of the area, as well as with natural gas rich Iran and Algeria, The Kremlin now enjoys active influence over more than half of the world's Natural Gas reserves, effectively heading a new energy Cartel. The first to feel Moscow's new found leverage where a number of the former Soviet Republics in Eastern Europe, which have strayed away from Russia and towards the EU and NATO. Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and even long-time ally Belarus, all faced a surge in the price of Natural Gas purchased from Russia, usually in the peak of the hard winter. After most ex-Communist European countries joined or are looking to join the EU, Russia's influence over its once mighty "backyard" has faded. As a result, it has stepped up support for pro-Russian disputed territories across Eastern Europe. Residents in Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Abkhazia and South Ossetia (Georgia) and Transnistria (Moldova), have expressed unequivocal support to break apart from their ruling countries and are all enjoying Russia's political backing. The Balkans presents a reversed situation, with Russia supporting ruling Serbia against Kosovo's independence dreams. In all listed territories, the US and EU are opposing Russia's policy, and are pursuing either preservation of the status-quo in the Eastern European countries, or negotiation for the formula which will enable Kosovo to earn its independence without causing a war. With the United States insisting to move forward with its controversial missile-shielding program on one end, and with Russia adopting old Soviet rhetoric in response, both sides accuse the other in triggering a new cold war. The Global war on terror and the Israeli-Arab conflict are inter-blocked in nature as well. Having dethroned terror-supporting regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, The Unites States and its allies are now reportedly battling Iranian-sponsored terrorist groups. The recent second Lebanon War was fought between the American-European backed Israel and Iranian-Syrian Backed Hezbollah. Further, with Hamas’ political rivalry and subsequent violent conflict with Fatah resulting in their seizing of the Gaza strip, Israel is now facing an Iranian proxy on its south border as well. In the Horn of Africa, United States-backed Ethiopia registered a major victory in the War on Terror after defeating the Islamic militias which received logistical support and funds from Iran, Syria and Libya. Elsewhere in the sub-Sahara, pressure from the Democratic powers on countries with disputed human rights record like Sudan, Zimbabwe, Angola and Eritrea, is being curbed by China's growing interest in the region. Looking forward In the April 2006 issue of the "Foreign Policy Agenda Journal", United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reflected about extraordinary moments in History. She observed that the victory in the first Cold War was made possible by "the good decisions that had been taken in 1947, 1948 and in 1949." She is, of course, not all wrong. The first stages of every battle have a major influence on the final outcome. Had the United States not initiated its containment policy when it did, communists might have traveled further west. Had the United States chose to leave Europe and Japan in ruins instead of rebuilding them, both could have served as platforms for new Fascist regimes. "We are now making decisions that will echo for many decades to come", wrote Secretary Rice, highlighting the significance of the Global war on Terror. Sadly, it is exactly this state of mind which is presently compromising American strategic interests all over the world. Six years into the War on Terror and terror is far from beaten. Afghanistan is deteriorating and Iraq is much worse despite showing positive signs lately. Syria, and even more so Iran, appears to be the key to most terrorist activity in the Persian Gulf and Middle East. Still, even the most optimistic analysts will tell you that even a successful military campaign again Teheran would trigger several months of global terrorism, at best. While maintaining the Global perspective on these issues, one could argue that the major concern Americans should have with the War on Terror is that it is blinding them and holding them back. While the United States' Secretary of State is dreaming on winning the War on Terror, Putin's actions in the past two years, along with the rise of China as a world power, are both showing the “real” global war is battled elsewhere. It appears, however, that no one in the White House seems to have gotten the memo. Russia is strengthening itself at a record pace; China is overtaking Africa and is gaining in East Asia, and Hugo Chavez is collecting allies all across Latin America. The United States, the sole superpower until not too long ago, has everything to lose. However, it must remember it is still a global superpower and as such must return to global policies instead of focusing on a single front policy. Despite major gains by Authoritarian countries, all is far from lost for the Democratic Block. Russia is growing fast, but is only the 14th largest economy in the world and won't reach the top 5 before 2020 at best; China is bound to face a major recession and possibly semi-democratic reforms, and one way or the other the United States will not be keeping 150,000+ troops in the gulf for much longer. Going into an election year in the United States, it would seem the much needed shift in policy would not arrive before spring 2009 when the new administration settles in. If the current administration decides to confront Iran and pro-American EU leaders continue to agree on major policy, the coming of the new American president would hail a new golden era for the Democratic Block. However, if they don't, the next person in the Oval office might find himself or herself leading a new Containment strategy to save crumbling Democracies around the world.
"The Second Cold War" Theory was first published in Israel in December 2005 by Alon Levin and Yuval Bustan. The two founded the Hebrew Web site "SikurMemukad" (www.sikurmemukad.com), a virutal magainze which covers all aspects of the aforementioned theory. To date, Mr. Levin and Mr. Bustan have published more than 350 articles covering the different powers and regional conflicts making this new geo-political system. They will publish a book on the subject on late 2008.
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